WASHINGTON, DC - May 6, 2008 – Design
and construction markets related to environment, infrastructure, and
facilities began to slow their rate of growth in 2007, and growth
rates are expected to decline still further in 2008, according to the
20th annual State-of-the-Industry Report delivered by
management consultants Farkas Berkowitz & Company to an
invitation-only conference of CEOs from leading architectural,
engineering, and construction firms.
Designers for
transportation, power, water quality, remediation, and facilities in
the U.S. enjoyed, in aggregate, a robust growth rate of 12 percent in
2007, down slightly from the phenomenal 15 percent growth rate of
2006. Alan Farkas, Managing Director of Farkas Berkowitz &
Company, explained that the volatile power engineering market masked
a more significant growth rate decline. He explained, “Excluding
power engineering, the aggregate growth rate of the remaining
segments in 2007 were half that of 2006, declining from a 14 percent
growth rate in 2006 to a 7 percent growth rate last year.”
Farkas Berkowitz &
Company forecasts that the five infrastructure markets in aggregate
will grow 5 percent in 2008 and 7 percent in 2009. “We expect the
current economic slowdown to affect all major markets, but the timing
and significance will vary,” said Mr. Farkas. He noted that
preliminary estimates of first quarter 2008 Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) growth rate was 0.6 percent, unchanged from the 0.6 percent
rate of growth in the 4th quarter of 2007. The slowdown
in growth coupled with the housing crisis, rising fuel prices, and
the disruption in the municipal bond market will result in a slowing
of growth in design markets related to transportation, water quality,
and remediation. The slow rates of growth will be partially offset
by the still rapidly growing design markets for power and
non-residential facilities. Moreover, the U.S.-based design firms
doing business abroad will continue to see more robust rates of
growth from international projects. Mr. Farkas pointed out, “Longer
term, infrastructure needs should bolster strong design and
construction markets well into the next decade.”
Transportation, Engineering and
Construction
Farkas Berkowitz & Company
estimates that the transportation engineering market grew 4 percent
to $9.8 billion in 2007. Mr. Farkas noted, “This was the second
consecutive year of declining growth rates. We saw the growth rate
peak at 12 percent in 2005, decline to 7 percent in 2006, and we
expect the rate of growth in this design market to decline further in
2008 and 2009. We look for a 2-3 percent growth rate this year and
no growth in 2009.”
Exhibit 1
U.S. Transportation
Engineering Market, 2006-2009
($ Billions)

Source: Farkas Berkowitz &
Company
Actuals based on ENR
Top 500 Design Firm Survey
Mr. Farkas went on to
point out that a shrinking highway and bridge market in 2008 and 2009
would offset growing rail, aviation, and ports and harbor segments.
Highway construction
increased 7 percent in 2007. According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s
annual value of construction put in place, the construction market
has increased 30 percent over the three years 2004-2007. However,
Mr. Farkas noted, “Unfortunately, construction costs have
increased more than 30 percent since 2004. Therefore, real dollar
investment in this important asset class actually declined over the
three-year period.”
Farkas Berkowitz &
Company estimates that the engineering market for highways and
bridges will contract by 5 percent in 2008 and contract another 5
percent in 2009. “We have the highway equivalent of ‘the perfect
storm.’ We could call it ‘the perfect pile-up.’ A confluence
of political and economic forces will subject this market to
extraordinary pressure.” The report quotes experts who forecast a
$3 - $4 billion deficit in the highway trust fund, which could result
in a cut back in obligations of $16 billion in federal FY 2009. The
firm forecasts that we will see another significant delay in the
re-authorization of the Federal law, now due to expire on September
30, 2009. Meanwhile, high gasoline prices are causing motorists to
cut back on driving, resulting in a decline of revenues flowing into
state highway trust funds.
Mr. Farkas explained,
“Given the growing importance of local and state sources of highway
funding, we find that the outlook varies considerably by state and
region. We look for strongly growing markets on the West Coast and
most of the Southwest.” The report notes that the hottest state
market is California, thanks in large part to funding from the
self-help counties. The coldest market is Texas, where spending on
highway capital improvements is expected to decline from $5 billion
in 2006 to less than $3 billion in 2008. Florida and Georgia were
also cited as relatively weak markets.
Public-private
partnerships and toll roads will be a positive force in the
marketplace over the coming years, but neither funding mechanism will
have a significant impact this year or next. The firm believes that
public-private partnerships, particularly for greenfield projects,
will be increasingly favored, and the development of toll roads,
especially for arterial highways, will help over time to narrow the
funding gap.
Farkas Berkowitz &
Company estimates that the transit engineering market grew at an 8-10
percent growth rate in 2007, showing a steady acceleration from an
estimated low single digit rate of growth in 2005. The freight rail
market seemed to slow for engineers in 2007, but the firm predicts
bright long-term prospects. “The cost advantage that railroads
have over trucking, with a better than three-to-one fuel efficiency
rating, will continue to allow freight rail to broaden its market
from one of hauling raw materials to transporting containerized
consumer goods.” explained Mr. Farkas.
Turning to the aviation
market, construction on airports grew 14 percent in 2007. The U.S.
Census Bureau reports that most of this growth is accounted for by
terminal construction, while work on runways and taxiways remained
virtually unchanged from 2006. The firm estimates that design work
for airports increased 5 percent in 2007, equaling the growth rate in
2006. Mr. Farkas reported that firms serving this market expect
strong double digit growth in 2009 and 2010. Farkas Berkowitz &
Company, however, is projecting a 5-10 percent growth rate this year
and next. As Mr. Farkas explained, “With jet fuel costs increasing
70 percent in the last 12 months, the pressure on airfares is too
strong to ignore. As airfares increase, we expect passengers to cut
back on travel. As passengers cut back on travel, some airport
authorities will delay their expansion plans.”
The firm reports that
engineers serving ports and harbors enjoyed their fifth consecutive
year of growth greater than 10 percent. In 2007 firms benefited from
the conduct of due-diligence studies to support a change in terminal
ownership, with more terminals now in the hands of international
shippers, port operators, and private equity funds. “We look for
growth in the engineering market to slow in 2008 to about 5 percent,
but then increase in 2009 and beyond as ports, particularly in the
Southeast and the Gulf Coast prepare for the widening of the Panama
Canal,” said Mr. Farkas.
Power Engineering and
Construction
Work on design and
construction of coal-fired plants initiated in 2006 produced a
phenomenal 57 percent growth rate in engineering design in 2007,
according to Farkas Berkowitz & Company. The firm projects that
this rate of growth will slow to 10 percent this year and next.

Source: Farks Berkowitz &
Company
Actuals based on ENR
Top 500 Design Firm Survey
The report reveals that
the top five engineering firms are growing at a much faster rate than
their smaller competitors. Revenues from international as well as
domestic projects enabled the top five, in aggregate, to nearly
double their revenues in 2007. Power engineering revenues increased
96 percent for these top five. The next 10 largest engineering firms
grew only 6 percent in 2007.
According to the U.S.
Census Bureau, construction grew strongly at a 27 percent rate of
growth to nearly $50 billion in 2007.
Mr. Farkas noted that in
2004 and 2005 coal plants were staging a comeback, but the outlook
for coal plants started to darken in 2006 and it continued darkening
in 2007. The firm estimates that 53 coal-fired plants were cancelled
or delayed last year. Mr. Farkas noted, “The 24 plants currently
in construction will generate growth for engineers and constructors
alike this year and next. Of the 15-20 now in the permitting stage,
we expect to see only three or four new starts through 2010.” The
report points out that natural gas is taking center stage again and
will likely be the fuel of choice for new starts over the next five
years. Finally, the firm notes that nuclear power is edging closer
to a renaissance.
Water Quality
Engineering and Construction
According to Farkas
Berkowitz & Company, the water quality engineering market grew 6
percent in 2007, breaking a string of at least eight consecutive
years of annual growth at 10 percent or better. The firm forecasts
that growth will slow further to 3 percent this year and then return
to double digit growth in 2009.
Exhibit 3
U.S. Water Quality
Engineering Market, 2006-2009

Source: Farkas Berkowitz &
Company
Actuals based on ENR
Top 500 Design Firm Survey
U.S. Census Bureau
estimates construction on water and wastewater plants grew 6 percent
in 2007 to $40 billion. These statistics include waste management
facilities, as well.
The firm reported that
the first signs of a slowdown in the engineering market were seen in
mid-2007. Project delays and cancellations have been seen in such
Sunbelt states as Florida, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico.
Mr. Farkas pointed out, “As a result of the housing crisis, we saw
population growth slow considerably in many of the fastest growing
counties in the Sunbelt states. This rather abrupt slow down in
population growth not only reduced the need for additional water and
wastewater infrastructure, but also significantly impacted those
public utilities that rely on hook-up fees as an important source of
revenue to fund capital improvements.” He went on to add, “Recent
disruptions in the municipal bond market could also be having a
chilling effect on water infrastructure projects. The municipal bond
market is still adjusting from concerns over the credibility of
insurance that guarantees many municipal issues, and this adjustment
combined with a large supply of bonds on the market helps to explain
the relatively high interest rates that municipal bonds are currently
fetching.”
The report suggests that
a slowdown in Sunbelt state population growth will also cause the
water design-build market to reduce its phenomenal rate of growth
from a better than 20 percent growth rate in 2007 to a 10 percent
rate in 2008. The report noted that the number of competitors for
each design-build procurement is increasing as general contractors
begin to flock to this attractive market and engineering firms
increasingly gear up to play prime contractor roles.
Water Quality
Public-Private Partnerships
Based on a survey
recently reported by Public Works Financing magazine, Farkas
Berkowitz & Company estimates that the water public private
partnership market showed no growth, even in nominal dollars, in
2007. The firm’s analysis of past surveys shows that the number,
average duration, and average annual contract value has declined
steadily over the last five years.
Exhibit 4
Profile of New Water
Public-Private Partnerships, 2002-2007

Source:
Farkas Berkowitz & Company
Based on
survey conducted by Public Works Financing
“Not surprisingly,
major firms in the partnership market continue to diversify their
services,” noted Mr. Farkas. As examples, he cited United Water’s
acquisition of a water tank services company, Utility Services
Company, and OMIs continuing emphasis on comprehensive city services.
The report does note that investment in the core business is
growing. Mr. Farkas speculated, “Increasing use of membrane
technology for desalination and water reclamation could spur more
design-build-operate projects and give contract operators some hope.”
He went on to note, “The greater use of operationally sensitive
membranes combined with the increasing financial burdens shouldered
by public utilities could also cause more municipalities to look to
private partners to operate their facilities.”
Remediation Consulting
and Engineering
The State-of-the-Industry
Report estimates that the remediation consulting market declined 1-2
percent in 2007. Moreover, the firm forecasts an additional five
percent contraction this year and a flat market in 2009.
Exhibit 5
Remediation Consulting and
Engineering Market, 2006-2009

Source: Farkas Berkowitz
& Company
Actuals based on ENR
Top 500 Design Firm Survey
Farkas Berkowitz &
Company found that, as in other markets, larger firms, with
international projects, fared far better than those reliant on the
domestic market. The top five firms in remediation consulting grew
an average of 17 percent, counting revenue from both domestic and
international projects, while those not in the top 15, saw their
revenues contract by an average of 16 percent.
The firm expects a slower
mergers and acquisitions market to reduce both due diligence studies
and associated remediation projects in 2008 and 2009. In addition,
Mr. Farkas noted, “During 2009, we will be transitioning to a new
administration. Even if the White House remains in Republican hands,
transition to a new president could slow decision making on
remediation projects and cause a lull in the market.” Farkas
Berkowitz & Company expects that those remediation consultants
serving big oil clients and those with significant permitting
practices for energy related projects should avoid seeing much of an
impact from the current economic slowdown.
Based on interviews with
major remediation contractors to the Department of Defense (DOD), the
firm estimates that the DOD remediation market contracted again in
2007 after shrinking in 2005 and 2006. Overall, many DOD remediation
contractors saw revenues decline by as much as 50 percent during the
three-year period. “Most major contractors believe that the DOD
remediation market is entering the end-game stage.” He went on to
point out, “The Army and Air Force are centralizing procurement in
a manner that would appear to place a greater emphasis on price and a
declining emphasis on past performance and strong client
relationships.”
The report notes major
pending procurements at the Department of Energy (DOE), where major
firms continue to fight for a share of the over $5 billion in
environmental management appropriations.
Facilities Engineering
and Construction
Alan Farkas announced
that the firm was initiating analysis of the broad facilities market
in an effort to make its CEO conference more relevant to CEOs from
architecture and construction companies.
Farkas Berkowitz &
Company estimates that the facilities engineering market grew at a 14
percent rate in 2007, continuing a record of strong growth rates
going back to at least 2005. The firm expects the facilities market,
which is largely non-residential, to continue at a double digit rate
of growth in 2008 and 2009.
Exhibit 6
Facilities Design
Market, 2006-2009

Source: Farkas Berkowitz &
Company
Actuals based on ENR
Top 500 Design Firm Survey
Mr. Farkas noted that
construction rates of growth in 2007 were as strong as architectural
and engineering growth rates. According to the U.S. Census Bureau,
construction growth rates were in the 13-19 percent range for such
important segments as health care, education, and office buildings.
In its report Farkas
Berkowitz & Company noted two major trends cutting across all
facilities market segments, sustainable design and the use of
building information modeling (BIM). “Virtually all owners,
regardless of market segment, now want some level of sustainable
design,” said Mr. Farkas, “The utilization of BIM is not yet so
universal.” However, Mr. Farkas explained, “BIM is reshaping the
designer-contractor relationship from one that was traditionally arms
length or even adversarial to one that places a premium on
collaboration.” The report goes on to explain that BIM is being
embraced by designers and contractors working on complex structures
such as health care and manufacturing facilities. It has yet to make
much of an impact in the education
market or the private
office building market. Nevertheless, Mr. Farkas points out, “By
providing a platform for collaboration among designer, contractor,
owner, and other parties to the building process, BIM holds the
potential for life cycle cost optimization and creating a partnership
among key players for the life of a facility.”
In discussing the
facilities outlook, the report points out the flood of appropriations
for the DOD’s Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) program, which
now totals $16 billion, covering federal FY2006-2008. The report
describes the differing approaches used by the Army Corps of
Engineers and NAVFAC for the Navy. The Corps is mandating the use of
BIM; the Navy has not yet made a decision to do so. The Corps is
relying on design standardization, with district offices specializing
in standard designs and construction oversight for certain types of
facilities. Contracts are being let by these standardization centers
and on a regional basis. The Navy is letting base-specific
contracts. The report explains that major construction firms thus
far have been the big winners. They are wary over the design-build
format of all BRAC work, particularly for the Corps.
In terms of the outlook
for the civilian facilities market, Farkas Berkowitz & Company
expects that the office building segment could see some slowing of
design growth in 2009-2010. In the education market, a slowing of
the growth rate in 2009-2010 could occur, particularly for K -12,
community colleges, and public universities. But the long-term
outlook for the education segment is strong. Finally, the firm
expects the health care facilities market to be unaffected by the
economic slowdown.
# # # # #
Farkas Berkowitz &
Company is a management consulting firm serving companies that
provide design, construction, and operational services relating to
infrastructure, environmental protection, and facilities. Established
in 1983, the firm assists clients with strategy, organizational
development, and mergers and acquisitions. Inquires should be
addressed to Chris Frangione at 202-833-7530 or
frangione@farkasberkowitz.com or visit their website: www.farkasberkowitz.com.
SOURCE:
FARKAS BERKOWITZ & COMPANY
TEL: 202-833-7530
EMAIL: FRANGIONE@FARKASBERKOWITZ.COM
WEBSITE: WWW.FARKASBERKOWITZ.COM